In 2001 Rupert Murdoch, an Australian-born media mogul and business magnate, was asked by the “Charlie Rose” host how he felt about the prospect of turning 70 on March 11th.
“Pretty bad,” Murdoch replied.
“I have lived for 613,000 hours.”
“201,000 were in childhood, youth, and thoroughly sort of inadequate education.”
“That leaves 412,000.”
“You take a third of that for sleep and rest. So I’m down to 275,000 hours. I take out a month for holidays, at least half a weekend, family time, evenings etc, and you’re down to—at the maximum—a couple hundred thousand hours at work.
And then I go, ‘What have I done? How much time have I wasted in endless meetings with no decisions? Industry conferences? Company conferences? Studying over-long reports?’
Yeah, I guess I’ve wasted at least half my life. So that gets me down to perhaps 100,000 useful hours. Pretty bad figures.
I’ve got about another 175,000 hours [20 years] to go, of which maybe I can spend 75,000 productively at work. All right? Or 70,000, say. So I’ve got to see that each one of those hours is well spent.
So if I’m pretty healthy and have a normal life expectancy.
I’m a bit optimistic: I’ve got about another 175,000 hours [20 years] to go, of which maybe I can spend 75,000 productively at work. All right? Or 70,000, say. So I’ve got to see that each of those hours is well spent. ”
Now, the founder and executive chairman of News Corp, a global media conglomerate, is 92, so his time estimation seems to turn out correct.
However, it is not always so when it comes to work. Estimating time can be challenging due to excessive optimism, overlooking dependencies, or unexpected complications.
Without prior experience or sufficient information, accurately estimating the time required for a specific task can be challenging. We often rely on guesswork or assumptions, failing to consider the time required for prerequisites or waiting for others to complete our work.
Unforeseen issues like technical difficulties or interruptions also disrupt our initial time estimates.
actiTIME Comment
What do we recommend? Do what Rupert Murdoch did – consider historical data to improve the accuracy of your time estimations, learning from past experiences and seeking feedback.
- Start by tracking the time it takes to complete various tasks or projects. Document the start and end times, any delays encountered, and factors that affected the timeline. Analyze this data to identify patterns and trends.
- Group similar tasks or projects together based on their characteristics, complexity, or requirements. By categorizing them, you can identify commonalities and gain insights into how long similar tasks have taken in the past.
- Calculate the average time it took to complete tasks within each category. This will provide a baseline for estimating similar tasks in the future. Analyze the range of time taken for tasks within each category to understand the potential deviation from the average. This will help in setting realistic timeframes.
- Consider any unique factors that may influence the duration of a task. Consider resource differences, team composition, or external circumstances impacting the timeline.
When estimating the time for a new task or project, refer back to the historical data from similar tasks. Compare the requirements and characteristics of the new task to those in the historical data to make an informed estimation.
